Effect of two-child: after 5 years the property market or demand will add 900 million square meters
"after the policy announcement this weekend, buy large potential clients has noticeably increased, our day of 250 units all sold out this morning, this afternoon may be increased. "Recently, the Jin Xiang Shan Lake, located in zengcheng district, Guangzhou City, the sales staff told the daily news reporter.
several brokerages statistics show that due to the first-time buyers account for more than 25~44sui are constantly shrinking, ageing and population leading to sustained demand in the housing market contraction, drifting near the ceiling. Markets have been looking forward to "comprehensive two-child" policy settled, incremental purchasing power undoubtedly brings to the real estate market, ease the oversupply of the current market.
However, the two-child policy can bring much new demand for housing? What kind of city benefits more? Which developers can benefit from?
three or four cities have had greater impact in the golden decade after the development period, and with the passage of China's demographic dividend, drifting near the ceiling of the real estate market. The National Bureau of statistics showed that in the past 40 years, the Chinese workforce that is 15~64sui of the population rose from 57% to 74.5% per cent. But starting in 2011, usher in a turning point in population structure, population declining, the proportion, in 2013, the data is 72.8%.
2013 National Statistical Office announces 2012 economic data, specially emphasized the 15~59sui appeared for the first time an absolute decline in the number of working-age population, loss of 3.45 million over the previous year. The turning points in the total workforce, which means that buying a House is the main force has been reduced. From buying groups to analyze, according to the measured aijian stock, 25~44sui had a population of home buyers in China's main force from the available population data, 25~44sui in proportion to population in the total population decreased from 34.36% in 2003 to 32.47% in 2014, its absolute number is also hovering around 440 million. As China's ageing and population increasing, not only affected economic development, demand contraction in the housing market. Full release after the second child, first of all is the increase of improved demand in this segment of the population.
according to health planning Commission data, current national policy-eligible couples about 90 million, assuming 5 years within the 50% family would birth a two-child, it will add a population of 45 million, nearly 9 million per year. Housing 20 sq m per capita, demand will add 900 million square meters, will add 180 million square meters annually needs. The medium and long term, according to g and he calculated that by 2028, the national 15~49sui (started in 1980 family planning) the demographic composition of the families will reach 180 million units.
among these, the "separate" family of about 72 million, accounted for 40%, "double said" family 95.4 million households, accounted for more than 53%, the "double single" family 12.3 million households accounted for only 7%, this means that after a comprehensive two-child policy to longer periods of positive impact on the real estate market. Behind upbeat data, there are hidden worries, love securities analyst Zuo Hongying believes that actual demand increase will depend on the real desire for giving birth and growing number of newborns.
judging from current cities, higher raising costs significantly reduces the fertility desires of women of childbearing age. Thus, the practical effect of this policy has yet to be tested. Based on previous public opinion research results show of the people's daily, China's "alone" only willing to have a second child in the family 50.73%. G-Swiss study showed, if referring to the projections, by the year 2028, benefited from the comprehensive two-child policy between the increased population will be between 90 million and ~9200 million, average about 7 million people, equivalent to an annual demand 140 million square meters of new housing, as opposed to at present average of 1.2 billion square meters of sales area, brought about by the increase of the market will be limited.
study of gold, compared with the high cost of raising in first-tier cities, due in three or four cities are much lighter burden of raising two children, the new policy of this city's more, increase in births will help three or four lines of urban housing digesting.